Predictions

Win-probability predictions for AFL fixtures, computed using a 6-factor weighted model (form, scoring power, team stats, venue, H2H, Squiggle tipster consensus). Predictions are versioned — model_version tags each row so historical predictions are preserved when the algorithm changes. Probabilities are expressed as floats, e.g. 72.5 = 72.5%.

GET /predictions

Returns predictions ordered by year desc, round desc. Filter by round, team, or settlement status.

Query Parameters

Name	Type	Required	Description
year	integer	No	Filter by season year
round	integer	No	Filter by round
fixture_id	integer	No	Filter by Squiggle fixture ID
team_id	string	No	Predictions involving this team (home or away)
model_version	string	No	Algorithm version, e.g. `v1`
settled	boolean	No	`true` = outcome known, `false` = pending
limit	integer	No	Default 50, max 200
offset	integer	No	Default 0

Examples

# Predictions for round 9, 2026
GET /predictions?year=2026&round=9

# All settled predictions for a team
GET /predictions?team_id=sydney&settled=true

Response

{
  "data": [
    {
      "id": 1, "fixtureId": 38566, "year": 2026, "round": 9,
      "homeTeamId": "fremantle", "homeTeam": "Fremantle",
      "awayTeamId": "hawthorn", "awayTeam": "Hawthorn",
      "venue": "Optus Stadium", "date": "2026-05-09 19:40:00",
      "homeProbability": 58.3, "awayProbability": 41.7,
      "squiggleConsensus": 61,
      "factors": [
        { "label": "Form", "homeScore": 0.72, "awayScore": 0.41, "weight": 0.2 }
      ],
      "homeBreakdown": { "form": 0.72, "scoring": 0.65, "stats": 0.58, "venue": 0.70, "h2h": 0.55, "squiggle": 0.61 },
      "awayBreakdown": { "form": 0.41, "scoring": 0.50, "stats": 0.44, "venue": 0.30, "h2h": 0.45, "squiggle": 0.39 },
      "modelVersion": "v1", "actualWinner": null,
      "computedAt": "2026-05-06T08:00:00.000Z", "settledAt": null
    }
  ],
  "meta": { "limit": 50, "offset": 0, "count": 9, "total": 9 }
}

GET /predictions/:id

Returns a single prediction by numeric ID. Response is the same shape wrapped in { "data": { ... } }.